HDFC Bank Q4 Results Strategy.

HDFC Bank is set to announce its quarterly results on 21st april. So some action and volatility can be seen in the coming week in this stock.

By seeing the chart we can take the trade at the start of the week as below.

The strategy whether to BUY / Sell will be based on the price open and close of the first hour on 10th April or any hourly close later in the day if it is within the current range in the opening hour so stay tuned.

The strategy would be BUY if it closes above 1445 with a SL at 1418 Target 1472/1499
The strategy would be SELL if it closes below 1418 with a SL at 1445 Target 1393/1366

If you want to play both sides then you can initiate an Long vega option strategy on Monday as follows

BUY HDFC BANK APRIL 1460 CE at 9-11
BUY HDFC BANK APRIL 1400 PE at 5-7

Put a Stop loss at combined premium eroding 30% i.e combined premium falling below 12 which is currently at 11+7 =18

Target for booking profit can be 30-40% profit from current levels of 18 which is around 24-25 levels as Initial Profit booking levels

This option Strategy is 1:1 Risk Reward Tradeoff!

Cup and Handle Breakout in Nifty.

In our last post we mentioned about the nifty losing momentum at all time highs but the market has made a comeback above the levels we mentioned to be important and gave a 1% rally from those turning levels already.

Here is our fresh take on the Nifty for the medium term time frame.

We have seen for the past couple of months a rally with healthy corrections starting from Mar 2016 and we have almost seen a return of 25% in a year in the benchmark index NIFTY and the stocks have almost all doubled from the levels that were in March 2016 except a very few stocks.

Though the majority are feeling that the stocks and index had a huge run up and its the time for a correction the market is behaving insane and making new highs every week by spending time consolidating more rather than correcting this is the support that the market is getting from bulls.

The charts are telling the market has just broken out and is ready to start the rally to much higher levels as you can see from the chart below a cup and handle breakout chart in nifty has just occurred and if this materializes into a rally we can get a 15% return in the medium term of 6-8 months.

Though the market valuations does not seem attractive keeping in mind the past rally but the story that is unfolding for India in the current global economic conditions can't be understood in simple terms.By this i mean in relative terms the global investors are showing interest in Indian markets and this is evident from their fund inflows for the past one year and this is expected to continue for the intermediate term which can take the markets at least 15% higher from the current levels.

Here is a Research Report from Motilal Oswal expressing fundamental view on nifty at current juncture

Click Here to View the Report

Though nothing can be predicted with 100% certainty the bullish view expressed here has a high probability.


The idea here is to just ride on the trend move by keeping a stoploss.

Our Idea is to Buy the market on every dips with stop loss placed at 9018 spot levels for the short term (1-2 months ) and 8800-40 levels for the medium term. (6-8 months)

Nifty made a Turnaround to Start a Fresh Rally!

We have seen cautious approach by the foreign institutional investors just before the State election results which we have noted in our earlier post.But on Stable Win by the Ruling Party BJP in 4 out of 5 States that went for election the results have been a clear mandate which welcomed the FIIs to become more confident of much wanted reforms and belief in growth story and they are now loading up their kittys with stocks to fuel a fresh rally at this juncture when the indexes are hitting All time highs.

This is evident from the Fund flows in the Derivatives and Cash Segment just after the election where they have booked out the loss in bearish positions and Loaded the Bullish positions of a significant portion in Index Futures and Cash segment which gave rise to a bullish Breakout in the Index and stocks.

So It is clear from these actions that they believe in a further Rally in the Indian Markets , So it is clear time to add some stocks to your portfolios to get advantage of the rally that is to come.

The sectors which are to look out for are Pharma in the first place followed by the Energy to make some meaningful gains as the rate sensitives have already been rallying for a long time since Feb 2016.

In the Banking space there are certain opportunities to look for in Beaten down PSU stocks which haven't participated much in the rally that we have seen and in the Private Banking space Axis Bank is a good opportunity at current valuations.

The IT Space is witnessing a weakness even in the wake of the strength in the markets which suggests to put a limited exposure in this space where concerns exist on Trump becoming the President.

Disclaimer: The views shared here are purely for educational Purpose and are not in any manner an advice to BUY or SELL any specific stock or Index Accordingly you are requested to consult an SEBI Registered Financial Advisor before taking any Investment Decisions